Why there's a chance Nintendo Switch 2 could fail

It may seem unthinkable, but the Nintendo Switch 2 could fall short of expectations

(Credit: The Shortcut/Nintendo)

• 🤔 Nintendo Switch 2 might not be the runaway success people think

• ✋ Nintendo’s next console faces several challenges

• 🙏 And encouraging consumers to upgrade won’t be an easy task

• 📈 However, Nintendo is in a position of strength and has momentum

The Nintendo Switch 2 feels destined to be a surefire success. Gamers are clamoring for a more powerful system, they’re still purchasing the best Switch games in their droves, and the positive sentiment surrounding Nintendo’s IP is stronger than ever. The company can seemingly do no wrong.

However, history has repeatedly shown that it’s almost impossible to bottle lightning twice – and there’s a real chance the Switch 2 could fall short of expectations.

Nintendo has been hit with this harsh reality several times. The Wii U was a catastrophic failure after the phenomenal success of the Wii and the Nintendo 3DS couldn’t hold a candle to the Nintendo DS.

Even the SNES failed to outsell the NES, and the N64 and GameCube – as beloved as they may be – continued a trend of declining sales for Nintendo until it gambled on the Wii.

Mix things up

It’s easy to say that consumers want more of the same from the Switch 2, and that’s generally true. But offering a refinement of what we’ve already had for over seven years will only appeal to a small majority and probably won’t help Nintendo surpass 100 million units sold again.

The novelty of the console’s hybrid nature – which was a huge selling point – will be gone, and there’s also more competition in the handheld space when previously there was none. Strong rumors of an Xbox handheld and PSP 2 could also make some buyers think twice.

Nintendo won’t be able to create the same wow moment with Switch 2. (Credit: Nintendo)

Focusing on better graphics and performance also yields diminishing returns, which Nintendo will have seen with PS5 and Xbox Series X sales. Yes, 50 million PS5 sales in almost four years might be deemed a success. However, Sony has still failed to convince a massive install base of PS4 gamers to upgrade to its latest system, despite innovations like the DualSense controller and 120fps PS5 games. And Microsoft is faring far worse.

That apathy will only rear its head once again with the inevitable launch of the PS6 and the new Xbox console, and it’s something Sony and Microsoft will have to address in the years ahead if they want to succeed. Nintendo, however, has to deal with this issue imminently, when the Switch 2 launches in March 2025.

Stand out, above the crowd

The Wii and Nintendo DS had their problems, but they transformed Nintendo’s fortunes. (Credit: Nintendo)

Does Nintendo need to include a gimmick or unique selling point for the Switch 2, then? I’d argue yes – though whatever feature it implements will need to be compelling, like the dual screens of the Nintendo DS instead of the glasses-free 3D of the Nintendo 3DS.

Thankfully, Nintendo isn’t afraid to experiment, and the company’s president Shuntaro Furukawa recently told shareholders that the Switch 2 will stand out from the competition. “There’s an increasing need, more than ever before, to continue offering unique propositions to become a brand that customers choose,” said Furukawa. That’s good news.

Obviously, Nintendo’s biggest strength is its library of games and unique IP. But even that could pose a problem. It won’t be able to rely on an excellent lineup of overlooked Wii U games that barely anyone played, and it’s delved heavily into its archives to revive forgotten titles for Switch like Super Mario RPG, Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door, and The Legend of Zelda: Link’s Awakening. Software droughts could seriously derail any momentum Nintendo has built.

One thing that will hold the Switch 2 in good stead is that it’s cultivated millions of new fans over the last seven years, especially younger gamers. Mario’s stock is also at an all-time high thanks to the success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie and in-person experiences like Super Nintendo World. It’s cool to like Nintendo again.

Cut the cord

A new 3D Mario game at launch that you can’t play anywhere else would encourage millions to pick up a Switch 2. (Credit: Nintendo)

The sheer success of the Switch also poses a problem for Nintendo. Even though the Switch has an install base of over 143 million, a mistake the company will want to avoid is making its games cross-gen. Apart from The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, Nintendo ensured that if you wanted to play its new titles like Super Mario Odyssey you needed the latest hardware.

Sony and Microsoft took a different approach, and while it may have seemed astute at the time to ensure millions of players could play newer titles, it led many to believe they didn’t need to bother upgrading to the latest system.

It also encouraged developers to make minor improvements to PS5 and Xbox Series X versions of Xbox One and PS4 games, instead of creating truly next-gen experiences. Four years in, only a handful of games couldn’t run on Sony and Microsoft’s last-gen systems – resolution and frame rate compromises aside.

All signs still point to Switch 2 being successful

No one predicted just how successful the Nintendo Switch would be. (Credit: Nintendo)

Nintendo has had close to eight years to think of a compelling idea and worthy successor to the Switch, and I’m confident that it will get things right. However, several pitfalls stand in its way which it needs to avoid. The worst thing it could do is deliver a more expensive, iterative console like a PS5 Pro, but the Kyoto-based company is known to take risks. And that’s exciting.

• Up next: How Nintendo Switch Online became the best subscription service for gamers

Adam Vjestica is The Shortcut’s Senior Editor. Formerly TechRadar’s Gaming Hardware Editor, Adam also worked at Nintendo of Europe as a Content Marketing Editor where he helped launch the Nintendo Switch. Follow him on X @ItsMrProducts.