Xbox Project Helix is already being tipped to lose the next console war to the PS6

Microsoft has an uphill battle ahead

(Credit: Microsoft)

• 🆚 Microsoft is already being tipped to lose the next console war to Sony

• 😬 One analyst has predicted year one sales of just two million units for Microsoft’s Project Helix

• 🤷‍♂️ This is based on Microsoft’s limited official messaging about whether it’s going to be a proper console or simply a PC with Xbox branding

• 🤔 We don’t know much officially about Project Helix, although it’s rumored that Microsoft may not ship it with a disc drive

One analyst is already predicting Microsoft will lose the next console war that will see Xbox Project Helix face-off against the PlayStation 6.

According to Forbes, Neil Barbour from S&P Global predicts that Project Helix will only sell two million units in its first year, below the Xbox Series X/S’s 3.2 million units shifted last year, which would be the worst on record for Microsoft if it were to be the case.

In an interview Barbour did with GamesIndustry.biz, he stated that “our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed.”

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In essence, his prediction is based on the little official information Microsoft has shared on Project Helix. If the console turns out to be an open PC platform with Xbox branding, in a similar vein to the Asus ROG Xbox Ally X, then it wouldn’t count towards typical console sales. In Barbour’s eyes, a proper console would appeal to “a narrower, more enthusiast-oriented audience.”

It’s worth noting that this is just a prediction based on what we know so far, and if we knew more, then perhaps analysts might be a little more optimistic. However, based on the tumultuous time Microsoft’s gaming division has had in recent times, things don’t look too good for Project Helix.

It’s rumored that Microsoft is also set to ditch physical games for Project Helix after Sony recently announced it’s discontinuing physical game disc production for all new PlayStation titles starting January 2028 – a decision that has sparked outrage across the industry on its own.

We don’t know much about Project Helix in terms of release date aside from a vague 2027 target, and that it will be a hybrid console for Xbox and PC games. Microsoft has also stated that the next-gen console’s price will be affected by the memory.

Alpha dev kits for Project Helix should be rolling out next year, as Microsoft confirmed in March, which could point to a release in 2028 or 2029 at the latest.

Up next: Asus ROG Xbox Ally X20 will be sold separately after all – though don’t expect it to be cheap

Reece Bithrey is a journalist with bylines for Trusted Reviews, Digital Foundry, PC Gamer, TechRadar and more. He also has his own blog, UNTITLED, and graduated from the University of Leeds with a degree in International History and Politics in 2023.