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Why the iPhone 14 may be announced one week earlier than expected
The iPhone 14 and iPhone 7 have something in common: launching in a unique September in which Thursday begins the month. Will Apple treat that as a full week again and surprise everyone?
Update: I was off by one day, but correct that Apple will launch the iPhone 14 one week earlier than everyone had expected – that’s if Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman is correct about the timing of Wednesday, September 7.
I have two strong theories for the likely iPhone 14 release date in September – yes, it’s expected next month – and I did some research into it because it has become the No. 1 question I get asked on Twitter daily. Suddenly, “When the new iPhone will launch?” has replaced “When will PS5 restock?” I can’t give a definitive answer – yet.
I can, however, lay out the nerdy facts based on the pattern (the iPhone 7 is the outlier that the iPhone 14 may follow) along with the latest reporting on Apple’s next event.
For the first time since the iPhone 7 launch, September 2022 will begin on a Thursday. Does that count as the first week in September?
Popular (and likely wrong): September 13 & 23
🤔 Status: Popular in reporting/blog rumors, but only follows one pattern
📆 Apple launch event (rumor): Tuesday, September 13, 2022
The second full week of September
🛍️ Actual release date in stores: Friday, September 23, 2022
The third full week of the September
A new iPhone has been launched on the third Friday of September every year since the iPhone 8 established this pattern – except for 2020 when the iPhone 12 series launched in October the midst of a global lockdown (completely understandable pattern deviation). Outside of that, recent Apple launch events have always been 10 days prior, in the second week of September.
That would put the iPhone 14 announcement date on Tuesday, September 13 and the actual release date on Friday, September 23. The pre-orders always happen one week prior to the release date (also on a Friday), making that date September 16.
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Apple is always been careful to avoid September 11, which as someone who lives and works in Manhattan and still travels down to the 9/11 Tribute in Light, I find respectful. The date usually clues us in on which day of the week the new iPhone won’t launch (it’s been a Tuesday in recent years except when the iPhone XS / XR launch event was on Wednesday, September 12, avoiding the 11th). But this year, September 11 falls on a Sunday (and the “skip Tuesday when it’s Sept 11” rule won’t be an issue until 2029), so the second Tuesday in September seems likely.
In fact, the blogs are all focusing on Tuesday, September 13 as the launch event date. But they’re forgetting one thing: the iPhone 7 launch event (the one iPhone launch event I was actually able to attend in person).
In fact, there I was:
The iPhone 7 launch month began on a Thursday, and the iPhone 14 launch month begins on a Thursday. Could it be that we’ll see the iPhone 14 one week earlier than almost the entire internet is expecting? Even I’m skeptical, but the pattern has been consistent since the iPhone 5.
True pattern? iPhone 14 on September 6 & 16
Update: It may in fact be a September 7 launch date (still September 16 in stores)
🤔 Status: iPhone 7 launched in Sept 2016, a month that began on a Thursday
Does that, therefore, count as the first week of September?
📆 Apple launch event (based on that pattern): Tuesday, September 6, 2022
The semi-second but first full week in September
🛍️ Actual release date in stores: Friday, September 16, 2022
The semi-third week but second full week in September
If you’re a true iPhone dates nerd then you’ll know that, for the first time since the iPhone 7 launch month, September 2022 will begin on a Thursday (yes, I went back and looked).
The iPhone 7 launched on Tuesday, September 6 (update: may now be Wednesday, September 7), the first full week in September (and, yes, the day after Labor Day), almost treating the Thursday, Friday and Saturday beforehand as a full week (is it?!). The pattern has been consistent since the iPhone 5.
iPhone 14 launch event date: Tuesday, September 7 or 13, 2022 (rumored)
Edit: Changed from September 6 to September 7 above
iPhone 13 launch event date: Tuesday, September 14, 2021
iPhone 12 launch event date: Tuesday, October 13, 2020
iPhone 11 launch event date: Tuesday, September 10, 2019
iPhone XS / XR launch event date: Wednesday, September 12, 2018
iPhone 8 / X launch event date: Tuesday, September 12, 2017
iPhone 7 release date: Tuesday, September 7, 2016
iPhone 6S release date: Wednesday, September 9, 2015
iPhone 6 release date: Tuesday, September 9, 2014
iPhone 5S / 5C release date: Tuesday, September 10, 2013
iPhone 5 release date: Wednesday, September 12, 2012
iPhone 4S release date: Tuesday, October 4, 2011
iPhone 4 release date: Monday, June 7, 2010 (WWDC)
iPhone 3GS release date: Monday, June 8, 2009 (WWDC)
iPhone 3G release date: Monday, June 9, 2008 (WWDC)
iPhone 1 release date: Tuesday, January 9, 2007 (Macworld)
When is the first true week in a month?
The iPhone 7 launch month began on a Thursday, and the iPhone 14 launch month begins on a Thursday. Could it be that we’ll see the iPhone 14 one week earlier than almost the entire internet is expecting?
As someone who arranges his to-do list by week, I’m very much on the fence about whether or not a month that begins on a Thursday has Week 1 begin right away (it’s a very real debate in to-do list forums where popular questions include: “Which is the true first week?” and “What do you do about the leftover 5th week?”).
Some caveats to this week-early theory
No one has nailed down the Apple iPhone 14 launch event yet. That’s what I keep telling people who ask me. Even Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman keeps things open, saying “likely to take place in the first half of the month (as usual).” First half. 🤔
And yes, even I have my doubts that Apple will rush the iPhone 14 to market one week earlier than it really needs to. There’s a global chip shortage, political turmoil in the heart of where the iPhone is built and chips are made, and inflation is at its peak (well, hopefully it has peaked). The iPhone 14 is expected to sport cool design changes, like an always-on screen and redesigned notch on the Pro models, notes Gurman.
I’m still torn on the two sets of dates – it’s going to be an unknown until Apple sends out event invites to the press. With so many people asking me, I’m suggesting to just leave all dates open.
If there’s one good sign, it seems as if my followers who email and DM me with tech questions daily (feel free to drop me a line) are more eager to upgrade this year than last year. The economy has softened, but people’s interest in when the new iPhone will launch has not.
Editor’s note: I have kept the fun reading-the-tea-leaves article intact, but edited where I was one by one day for clarity.
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